Topic:Core asset stocks
Red Weekly Reporter | Cao Jingxue
As the largest active equity fund at the end of the first quarter, Invesco was announced on May 17 to participate in the non-public offering of shares. The "latest" scale of Great Wall's emerging growth (260108) was exposed. According to calculations, the size of the fund has reached 58.5 billion yuan, a 8.8 billion yuan increase from the end of the first quarter, and Liu Yanchun's own management of the fund is likely to exceed 120 billion. With the rising of the star fund manager’s management scale, Zhang Kun and Liu Yanchun have joined hands to start the era of top 100 billion public offerings, but the growth in volume has also allowed top stars to accelerate the process of abandoning small-cap stocks and choose to firmly embrace core assets. Blue-chip targets of this kind have become a consensus.
According to the "Red Weekly (blog, Weibo)" reporter statistics, many tens of billions of funds have their long-term heavy holdings, and these targets were even when the product was not well-known a few years ago. It has already begun to hold heavy positions. For example, E Fund Small and Medium Cap (110011), Invesco Great Wall Emerging Growth and China Universal Consumer Industry Funds have been holding Moutai (600519) continuously for more than 3 years. Among them, E Fund's small and medium-sized caps opened a continuous heavy position in Moutai when the scale of 2013 was only about 2 billion.
From the perspective of heavy stocks, there are many overlaps between the long-term holdings of public funds and the targets of "grouping and heating". Most of them belong to the category of core assets, including "Mao Wulu" and other liquor leaders. , Midea and Gree and other home appliances leaders, Aier Ophthalmology (300015, shares it) and Changchun High-tech (000661, shares) and other medical leaders.
The core assets of the top ten “dominant screen” public offerings in the past three years are listed.
After a short period of shock adjustment, this week, the core assets have been three consecutive A counterattack was staged in the A-share market on the trading day. According to "Red Weekly" reporter statistics, among the 3,413 active equity funds, 247 have already set a record high net value on May 26. As their core assets fly again, their sticking to their core assets is finally waiting to see the light of day. Funds that have been controversial during this year's "group stock" callback, including E Fund Blue Chip Selection and Invesco Great Wall Emerging Growth, have also used the opportunity of counterattack to quickly regain lost ground.
The dazzling performance of public offering funds in the past two trading days may not have been caused by short-term stock swaps. Their long-term holdings may have contributed a lot to some extent. Take Zhang Dongyi, GF's "goddess of consumption" as an example. The net value growth rate of many GF Juyou products under her management exceeded 3.5 percentage points on May 25. Among GF Juyou's heavy stocks, Luzhou Laojiao (000568, shares it), Guizhou Moutai (600519, shares) and CDFG have been held by her for more than 3 quarters. Among them, Guizhou Moutai has been held by her for 14 consecutive quarters.
The situation similar to Zhang Dongyi is not an isolated case. Among the 12 funds with a management scale of more than 10 billion yuan and established for more than 3 years according to the "Red Weekly" reporter, Yifangda small and medium-sized funds, Invesco Great Wall Xinxing Growth, Huitianfu's consumer industry and Fortune Tianhui (161005) selected growth have been in Kweichow Moutai for more than 12 consecutive quarters.
The E Fund small and medium-sized cap managed by Zhang Kun is the longest product of Moutai that has been continuously restocked for 32 quarters. Since June 30, 2013, Kweichow Moutai has appeared in the fund's heavy holdings. By the end of the latest reporting period, that is, at the end of the first quarter of this year, Zhang Kun continued to continue his heavy holdings of Kweichow Moutai. As of the close on May 26, Kweichow Moutai's share price has risen by about 15 times during the period.
In addition to Kweichow Moutai, according to the "Red Weekly" reporter statistics, the long-term holdings of tens of billions of public funds are Wuliangye (000858), which also belongs to the liquor sector, and Luzhou Laojiao and home appliances. Gree Electric (000651, shares it), Midea Group and Supor (002032, Shares), Aier Ophthalmology, Changchun High-tech and Tigermed (300347, shares) in the medical field, insurance leader Ping An of China (601318), commercial bank leader China Merchants Bank (600036, shares), real estate company Poly Real Estate (600048, shares) ), security leader Hikvision (002415, shares), photovoltaic leader Longji shares (601012, shares) and Yili shares (600887, shares) in the dairy sector.
From the nature of the target, it is not difficult to see that the target of long-term shareholding by public funds is basically the same as the "group stock" in the general sense, and basically belongs to the category of core assets. Although stock prices in the secondary market inevitably fluctuate, as of the close of May 26, the above 13 stocks have all achieved gains in the past three years. Among them, pharmaceutical stocks and liquor stocks have the highest gains. Tigermed, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao And Aier Ophthalmology both increased by more than 3 times; while the performance of home appliances, real estate and insurance in the past three years was relatively weak. Gree Electric, Ping An of China and Poly Real Estate increased by 32.67%, 29.76% and 21.92% respectively.
In this regard, the chairman of Yiluo Investment, a tens of billions of private equity, once said in an interview with a reporter from "Red Weekly": "With a large amount of funds and a small amount of high-quality targets, the top advantages among listed companies will It gradually emerged. Leading companies have long-term competitive advantages such as brand, cost, and barriers, and the certainty is relatively clear. As for the choice of long-term stock holdings, Wang Liang, director of the research department of Minsheng+Bank, also told the reporter of "Red Weekly": "My The investment strategy is to choose leading companies in various industries to hold for a long time. However, there will be no lock-up at the moment, and investments will be made by focusing on changes in the fundamentals of quality companies. ”
Attached table: List of long-term holdings of tens of billions of public offerings
Top Flow Fund Managers each have a "good heart"
Differentiated persistence to achieve extraordinary performance
In addition to consensus long-term stock holding targets, there are also funds Managers have their own "unique" long-term stock holdings. For example, CEIBS Times Pioneer managed by Zhou Yingbo has been Shigecang Guodian Nanrui (600406, shares) for 17 consecutive quarters; and since the third quarter of 2014, Zhu Shaoxing's Fu Guo Tianhui managed For 27 consecutive quarters of growth, Guoci Materials (300285, stocks) has been heavily stocked. From the perspective of market performance, the growth rate of Guoci Materials is quite eye-catching. The stock has increased by 275% in the past three years, and Zhu Shaoxing has gained a lot since the heavy warehouse. The floating profit may be more than 6 times.
According to data, Fortune Tianhui Growth was established in November 2005. The fund has been managed by Zhu Shaoxing since its establishment. In the field of public equity, it is similar to Wang Yawei, China Examples of the broader market are relatively rare, especially Zhu has devoted all his time to this fund so far. Therefore, it can be said that heavy stocks including Guoci Materials have witnessed this story of Fu Guo Tianhui.
A reporter from The Weekly found that in the period of more than 4 years from the third quarter of 2009 to the end of the fourth quarter of 2013, Fortune Tianhui Growth had a long-term position in the information service company Shiji Information (002153, shares). In the process of holding positions. , The company’s stock price has also doubled, but at this stage, the company’s stock price has not been able to replicate the trend at that time. The increase in the past three years is only 17.28%.
In fact, the information service industry is in The overall situation at this stage is also underperforming. As of the close of May 26, the CSI All-Index Information Service Index has fallen by nearly 30% in the past three years. In addition, from the second quarter of 2010 to the first quarter of 2014, real estate stocks have new Huzhongbao (600,208, stocks) also dominated the heavy holdings of Fortune Tianhui's growth, and then never appeared in the heavy holdings of the fund. On the one hand, the real estate as a whole entered the silver age from the golden age, and in the process Funds are more concerned about leading companies.
From Zhu Shaoxing’s heavy holdings, we can not only see the changes in the nature of his long-term holdings, but also show that regardless of the size of the fund, his long-term holdings The penetration of the stock strategy. A reporter from "Red Weekly" found that from 2009 to 2013, the size of the fund was between 2 billion and 5 billion, but fund managers have begun to practice long-term stock holding strategies.
And Zhu Shaoxing said in the latest quarterly report: "At the level of individual stock selection, the fund prefers to invest in companies with good corporate genes, complete corporate governance structures, and excellent management. We do not have the reliable ability to accurately predict short-term market trends. Instead, we concentrate our energy on patiently collecting outstanding companies with great prospects, waiting for the realization of the company's own value creation and the cyclical return of market sentiment at a certain point in the future. "
There are many examples of Xinshui stocks moving forward with star fund products. Zhang Kun is also one of them. At the beginning of E Fund’s continued heavy holding of Kweichow Moutai in small and medium-sized caps, the size of the fund was only about 2 billion. After the fund size surpassed 5 billion in 2018, his holding of Kweichow Moutai has also been maintained at more than 1 million shares.
The core assets of the era of explosive equity will become the top-tier standard configuration
Long-term shareholding is the choice of fund managers to practice value investment. Increasingly, this trend becomes more and more clear. According to the statistics of "Red Weekly" reporters, at the end of the first quarter of this year, there were 48 active equity funds with a scale of more than 10 billion yuan. In the same period of 2019, there were only a handful of 10 billion public offering funds. The largest single product has also changed from Xingquan’s 32.475 billion yuan to Invesco Great Wall’s emerging growth of 49.669 billion yuan.
With the increase in scale, the target of public funds can only be selected among large market capitalization companies. Take the emerging growth of Invesco Great Wall managed by Liu Yanchun as an example. At the end of the first quarter of this year, the fund’s stock investment market value was 47.06 billion yuan, and Gujing Gongjiu (000596, shares), which ranked last among the top ten stocks, was held. The market value has reached 1.998 billion yuan. According to the statistics of "Red Weekly" reporters, among the 4,319 listed companies currently on the market, more than 3,561 companies have a market value of less than 19.998 billion yuan, which means that the market value of Invesco Great Wall's tenth largest emerging growth stock is all It has exceeded 10% of their market value, and such small market capitalization stocks cannot meet the criteria for being heavily invested by large-scale funds.
In addition to the limited selection of targets, the increase in the size of the fund also has a practical impact on the operation of fund managers. In the article "A-Shares Entering a New Era of "Passive Investment"" published by "Red Weekly", it also pointed out: "From a practical perspective, when managing tens of billions of funds, some single-day turnover Stocks below 100 million yuan are basically bought cautiously or abandoned. Once bought, the stock may rise by 5 or even 10 points, which raises the cost of buying and holding positions, and it is difficult to exit. Therefore, institutional funds have to buy large market capitalization stocks with sufficient trading volume."
As the manager of large-scale funds, Xie Zhiyu also frankly told "Red Weekly": "When the size of funds reaches a certain level, "Passive investment" is more effective in terms of rate and scale. This is the trajectory of overseas development, and we may also develop along this trajectory."
In addition, well-known fund analyst Chang Jue is right A reporter from "Red Weekly" said: "As the size of the fund increases, it is necessary to choose a larger market capitalization target with better liquidity. In the case of limited selection of targets in the market, many celebrity public offering products will also have the same rate of return. It’s not easy for them to obtain excess returns in the short-term, but long-term investment in high-quality targets still has a great opportunity to outperform the market."
The investment of the times is also a major test for fund managers. At this time, fund managers with long management periods can fully reflect their experience advantages; and fund managers who achieve beautiful performance through short-term games will also suffer from insufficient experience when their scale becomes larger. It’s difficult to consistently beat the market."
(The individual stocks mentioned in the article are only examples of analysis and no trading recommendations are made.)To (Editor in charge: Wang Zhiqiang HF013)