China's stock market, reappearing the "ice and fire" situation? Investor: I can't play if this continues!

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Topic:4 bottles of water on the Chinese stock market

On August 7th, the two markets fluctuated and weakened in early trading. The three major indexes all performed weakly. The ChiNext Index fell more than 1%, the Shanghai Composite Index fell more than 0.7%, and the Shenzhen Component Index fell nearly 0.9%. On the disk, the securities and semiconductor sectors led the decline, while the Hainan, hotel and catering sectors strengthened.

In general, there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment for funds. The two markets have fallen more and rose less, and the market has a poor effect on making money. As of press time, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index 3362.46. Points, down 0.71%, and the Band Index reported 2781.26 points, down 1.18%.

On the disk, Hainan, hotels, restaurants, and scenic tourism are among the top gainers in the sector, and securities, semiconductors, and digital currencies are among the top losers in the sector.

The flow of funds in the broader market

In the early trading of August 7, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets had a net inflow of -9.043 billion yuan, of which the Shanghai stock market had a net inflow of -4.543 billion yuan, and the Shenzhen stock market had a net inflow of funds. -4.5 billion yuan.

Yesterday’s late-market brokers suddenly exerted their efforts. We all mistakenly thought that there would be a good market in the future, but to a large extent, the main force was mainly to increase shipments.

We must pay attention to the next callback and shock market, the news angle to predict the next trend, more clear information depends on today's closing situation.

Brokerage stocks collectively weakened in early trading. As of press time, Zheshang Securities (16.720, -0.98, -5.54%) fell more than 5%, No.1 Venture (10.730, -0.56, -4.96%), CITIC Jiantou (50.900, -1.85, -3.51%), Oriental Fortune (26.980, -1.69, -5.89%), and Bank of China Securities (30.960, -1.75, -5.35%) fell more than 4%.

The "vaccine bottle" is monopolized by foreign companies

The proportion of pharmaceutical glass is decreasing year by year, and the borosilicate vials required for vaccines are now monopolized by foreign companies.

At the industry level, according to the statistics of Zhiyan Consulting, in 2018, the scale of China's pharmaceutical glass packaging reached 21.9 billion yuan, a slight decline year-on-year, while the overall scale of China's pharmaceutical packaging materials industry increased by 11% year-on-year to 107 billion yuan. The ratio of pharmaceutical glass packaging to the total scale of pharmaceutical packaging is 20.47%. It is worth noting that from 2012 to 2018, the proportion of pharmaceutical glass packaging decreased year by year, from 30% in 2012 to 20% in 2018, a decrease of 10% .

Currently, There are more than 60 companies engaged in pharmaceutical glass packaging in my country. Among the A-share listed companies, Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass and Zhengchuan Co., Ltd. are mainly listed. Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass is the leader in the domestic pharmaceutical glass industry. Its products include molded bottles, brown bottles, ampoules, control bottles, butyl rubber stoppers, plastic bottles with aluminum plastic caps, etc. The company's molded bottles account for more than 80% of the market.

Let’s take a look at the vaccine bottle. The China Vaccine Industry Association stated that the packaging material selected for the specific requirements of the vaccine is borosilicate glass, mainly controlled injection bottles (commonly known as vials) and prefilled syringes.

Although some domestic enterprises have begun to produce medium borosilicate glass tubes, there is still a certain gap between the product quality and the international advanced level. The technical barrier of borosilicate glass tube is the main bottleneck restricting the large-scale application of domestic borosilicate glass bottle.

Moutai: slowdown in growth rate and difficulty in raising prices and limited production capacity. Direct sales efforts

The base wine production growth rate is relatively low

In the first half of the year, Moutai completed a base wine output of 48,100 tons, of which Moutai base wine output was 3.67 10,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.69%. The production of series wine-based wine was 11,400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.59%. The growth rate of output was relatively slow.

Although the capacity utilization rate has further increased, due to capacity constraints, the overall production growth rate of Moutai is expected to be slow. And Moutai has always been suppressed by its production capacity of 56,000 tons.And Moutai will slow down the speed of increasing its production capacity, which is generally considered to be a gap with the 10% production capacity growth rate that the market generally believes.

The growth rate and limit of production capacity will ultimately determine the ceiling and valuation level of Moutai.

Sale of wine series declined year-on-year

Separately, Moutai's revenue in the first half of the year was 22.22 billion, an increase of 13.97% year-on-year, and Q2 revenue was 17.04 billion, an increase 11.4%, the growth rate is basically in line with market expectations.

In the second quarter, the growth rate slowed down due to the epidemic. Coupled with a relatively high base in the second quarter of last year, the overall growth rate was in line with expectations.

In contrast, the performance of the series is not satisfactory. In the first half of the year, the series wine revenue was 4.65 billion yuan, basically the same year-on-year, but even slightly decreased in the second quarter, dragging down the overall revenue of the second quarter statement.

There is a huge gap between the brand appeal of the series and Moutai, and it is difficult to supplement the performance flexibility. After years of cultivation, even bundled sales, the market presence of the Moutai series is still not high . Under the epidemic, the difference between high-end liquor and low-end liquor is obvious.

It is difficult for Feitian Moutai to raise prices

Since 2006, the ex-factory price of Moutai has been rising continuously, from 268 yuan/bottle to 969 yuan/bottle in 2017. The price range reached 2.62 times, which was converted into a compound annual price increase rate of 11.3% per year.

Looking closely at the pace of changes in Moutai's ex-factory price, there are fast and slow, but the overall price adjustment trend is getting slower and slower and smaller. In 2006, the ex-factory price of Moutai was adjusted twice within a year, and since then it was basically once a year. A few years of adjustment period delayed the price adjustment. After the price adjustment in 2017, the price has not yet been increased.

Briefly talk about the areas that must be paid attention to in trend trading

Some people only look at technology or individual stock patterns and ignore the fundamentals: Although trend trading emphasizes technical and The form of individual stocks is a prerequisite for stock selection, but after selecting individual stocks that meet technical support, there must be fundamentals as support or catalyst expectations. This is also the logic that supports the continued rise of individual stocks.

Just like choosing some stocks, although they will rise in line with the pattern, the continuity is relatively poor without the fundamental logic, so the technical form is important, and the fundamentals are also crucial.

Choose the main-line leader board, and at the same time, face more choices and choose the stronger trend: In each round of trending opportunities, there will be two or three main-line leaders coming out. It is an unchanging truth.

Choosing the main line can achieve relatively higher returns than the broader market, and even the magnitude of the retracement is relatively small. After several failures, and after communicating with a friend, the main line is strictly implemented. Only after the leader board did they really want to understand and be able to strictly control their positions.

Label group:[stock] [investment] [Moutai

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