This article is from "CICC's finishing touch."
Hydrogen energy is indispensable as a secondary energy source, and achieving “carbon neutrality” requires greater policy support. In order to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality, we believe that China may need to promote non-fossil energy-based electric energy to become the main energy source at the energy supply side, accelerate the increase of electrification rate, and accelerate the promotion of hydrogen energy in the field of non-electric energy , Carbon capture and other new technology applications. We believe that the current preparation, storage, transportation and application of hydrogen energy are all imperfect, and in the long run, green hydrogen has a clearer route to reduce costs. Hydrogen production by electrolysis of new energy sources at the hydrogen production side is a medium- and long-term development route; the reduction in the cost of hydrogen transportation will depend on the improvement of technology and scale; the large-scale and localization of terminal hydrogenation is the main driving force for cost reduction.
Hydrogen energy production: Chemical by-product hydrogen has cost advantages, and in the long run, hydrogen production from electrolysis of water will become the mainstream. At present, the utilization of domestic chemical by-product hydrogen is a better choice for hydrogen supply in the fuel cell industry. The domestic chlor-alkali, PDH and fast-developing ethane cracking industries can provide sufficient low-cost hydrogen resources. In contrast, we believe that hydrogen production by electrolysis of water is the cleanest and most sustainable way to produce hydrogen, but it is currently difficult to use on a large scale due to higher costs. We expect that after 2025, with the continuous increase in the proportion of new energy power generation, the ultra-low new energy price (0.1-0.2 yuan/kWh) of the wealthy part can reduce the cost of hydrogen production from electrolysis of water to below 15 yuan/kg. We expect that it will drop to more than RMB 10/kg after 2040, which provides a large room for reduction in the cost of hydrogen supply in the medium and long term.
Hydrogen storage and transportation: long and short distance options are different, and each storage and transportation technology route develops in parallel. Hydrogen storage and transportation technology includes three methods: gas storage and transportation, liquid storage and transportation, and solid storage and transportation. At present, hydrogen transportation in my country is mainly based on high-pressure gas long tube trailers. We believe that each storage and transportation technology is suitable for different situations due to their own characteristics, and that each technology will develop in parallel in the future. Gaseous storage and transportation will be used for short-distance and small-scale transportation; pipeline/liquid hydrogen transportation will be used for medium and long-distance large-scale transportation. At the same time, government investment in the construction of hydrogen pipeline transportation is also a potential development plan.
Hydrogen energy applications: From a few uses to more applications, the transportation field will become an important place. From the perspective of application difficulty, we believe that passenger cars (3000km) and ships transporting liquid ammonia will have a greater cost advantage than hydrogen and organic liquids.
► Solid hydrogen storage and transportation: Solid hydrogen storage mainly uses metals as hydrogen storage carriers. Some metals react with hydrogen under certain temperature and pressure conditions to form metal hydrides. Can release hydrogen. Metal hydrogen storage has the advantages of high volumetric hydrogen storage density, low hydrogen storage pressure, and good safety, but the mass hydrogen storage density is generally lower than 3.8wt%. Solid-state hydrogen storage systems are used in fuel cell submarines overseas, and small-scale demonstration applications are only carried out in Rugao and other places in China.
Chart: Liquid Ammonia Container
Source: Shengfa Fertilizer Industry, CICC Research Department
Chart: solid magnesium-based hydrogen storage container
Source: Hydrogen Energy Storage, CICC Research Department
Chart: various storage and transportation Method conversion/re-conversion cost
Source: IEA, CICC Research Department
Chart: Full cost of long-distance storage and transportation Comparison (2030)
Note: Including conversion, transportation and re-conversion costs; assuming that the pipeline has a capacity of 100 tons per year, and the terminal’s local transportation distance is 50km; data source : IEA, CICC Research Department
V. Hydrogen energy application: the transportation field will become an important place
1.Developing from a few uses to more applications, the transportation field will become an important landing site
The certainty of hydrogen energy applications is strong, and there is a large space in the field of heavy trucks. In the long run, the aviation field Expand. In the context of carbon peaks and carbon neutrality, we believe that hydrogen, especially "green hydrogen" based on new energy sources, is an important medium for the zero-carbon energy system; in the process of "decarbonization" in the road transportation field, lithium electricity is already available. To meet the basic requirements of passenger cars for endurance, it is difficult for long-distance commercial vehicles to apply pure electric solutions based on lithium batteries. Hydrogen fuel cell solutions have become a necessary option for the electrification of long-distance commercial vehicles. Under the background of mature hydrogen fuel technology, the short-term industry has entered a policy honeymoon period, and the industry's development is expected to usher in the first acceleration. With the successive introduction of national and local hydrogen energy promotion and support policies, we believe that the commercialization process of the hydrogen energy industry chain will enter a period of acceleration, the revenue of related companies will start, and the activity of the industry chain will definitely start.
Chart: Various applications of hydrogen energy
Source: BNEF, CICC Research Department
Passenger cars will become the "touchstone" for the landing of hydrogen fuel cells. From the perspective of application difficulty, we believe that passenger cars