Leading stocks have risen sharply, can they increase their positions?

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Topic:leading stock

The stock market in recent days can only be described as a "bull". The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index broke through 3,500 points in one fell swoop, the ChiNext Index hit a new high since the bull market in 2015, and the trading volume of the two markets exceeded one trillion again. No matter what the market situation this year, this strong opening is truly unique in recent years, even more than in 2015. Be simple and crude. Today's stock market continued yesterday's style. The Shanghai and Shenzhen indexes continued to rise, and food and liquor continued to hit new highs. The most dazzling one was the super brand sector, which rose by 4 percentage points. You must know that the individual stocks in this sector are all leading stocks. Yili, Haier, BYD, Wuliangye, and Bull all started with a market value of 100 billion. This sector has risen sharply for 4 consecutive days, and it is the only one in the two cities that can compete with Baijiu. plate.

About super brands, I have already introduced in detail in an article a few days ago "Next year, these 33 Leading stocks are worth paying attention to! ", and left two fund codes in the message area at the end of the article. As long as you catch them, the yield at this time will definitely outperform the broader market.

In this article, let's interpret this sector in depth, and give you a stock selection method, so that you can see the current trend clearly, don't always go short and cut meat. You think you are overestimating, but in fact, the spring of this sector has just begun.


01

Current stock market environment


These two days, despite the stock market rally, I have been on the planet I remind everyone to pay attention to risks, because the foundation of the rise is unstable. Before the holiday, because public offerings and private placements have to clear their positions and settle accounts, many stocks have been sold, resulting in limited sales before the holiday. Entering the market yesterday began to grab chips, which drove the stock market to surge. In particular, the securities sector has been rising continuously a few days ago, and Founder Securities has been on a three-chain board, giving people the illusion that a bull market is coming, but in fact, this illusion should be awakened yesterday, and I have reminded you many times during the session. Pay attention to the risks of the securities sector, which is obviously at the end of the rise. Today, the securities sector was completely extinguished, and the early leader Fangzheng fell by 7%, and the early trading gave a last chance to escape.

At the same time, the stocks and sectors that have risen sharply in the past two days are basically favored by institutional funds, which are very important to the market outlook. Representatively, to put it simply, if the market has risen sharply in the past two days, there is a high probability that the market will continue to rise. If it has fallen in the past two days, it is difficult to have a big market in the future. At most, it is a short-term small market driven by concepts and policies.

Since last year, I have been emphasizing that foreign capital and funds are the absolute main force of the current A-share market, while hot money and Zhuangzhuang have become the wild way in the A-share market. , can't get on the table, and now if you still have the previous hype method, prefer small-cap stocks and are keen on junk stocks, then you will see what is endless down. Since the registration system in the previous year, the number of junk stocks in A-shares has increased significantly, the trading volume of small-cap stocks has become lower and lower, and retail investors have become less and less enthusiastic. The rise and fall of large-cap stocks is getting bigger and bigger, the degree of control is getting higher and higher, and the fund share is increasing continuously. Only with institutional funds can we eat meat. Therefore, tracking funds and foreign capital will become an important investment strategy for us throughout the year.

I have shared many methods on how to track foreign capital and funds before. In this article, we will talk about a magical indicator - equity concentration, which helps us find real bull stocks.


02

Ownership Concentration


The so-called equity concentration, in fact, is where most of the equity is concentrated, and then to determine how much equity is circulating in the market Everyone knows that the higher the concentration of stocks, the greater the potential for individual stocks to rise. Why is there always hot money in the market to speculate on new stocks? Why is there a daily limit death squad? Why can ST stocks continue to pull the board, and the demon stocks keep rising? Do you think these Chasing the ups and downs, are those who take orders on the daily limit are desperate people? NO! Because they know that this stock is very limited in tradable shares, the equity concentration is high, and there is no selling in the market at all, and a little buying will push the stock price old. High. For example, the recent Shenyou Golden Arowana, you think its market value is 700 billion, which is twice as expensive as Sinopec, and it is painful to rise or fall. In fact, the market value of this product is only 40 billion, and it fluctuates by more than ten points every day. A small amount of what a large-cap stock should look like. The result of the high concentration of equity is that this stock will not die if it rises. In just two months, it has risen from 40 to 140. I once sold it for 70 yuan, and all I missed was my life. Ah, let's buy Fulinmen's oil at night!

So, there are two biggest trends at the moment: one is to buy faucets , buy a super brand; the other is to buy stocks with less tradable equity and almost all of them are bought by institutions. In the picture below, I have sorted out the A-share stocks that currently have more foreign investment + fund holdings. The top-ranked Mindray Medical, Luxshare, WuXi AppTec, BYD, Conch Cement are all big bull stocks that have been rising continuously recently.

So , If you want to catch this year's main market, you must learn to check the company's equity concentration.


03

How to check ownership concentration


Although I have selected stocks with high equity concentration above, it is obvious that we cannot use them directly, because I have not considered the difference between the outstanding shares and the total share capital. Obviously Ling Le is a practical school, and every time I choose Stocks will look at equity liquidity. Here I teach you three simple and effective methods to judge the concentration of individual stocks. You can take a look What about your own stocks. First, look at the five-level quotation in the upper right corner is the one in the picture below

This order quotation You can see the market circulation most intuitively. You can even understand how much capital is needed for a price fluctuation. For example, in Zhejiang Longsheng in the picture above, it takes about 500×100×13.5=660,000 to fluctuate. Many, the equity is not concentrated. As a comparison, let's take a look at CanSino. Although the stock price is high, it only needs to fluctuate around 300×351=110,000 at a time, and the degree of control is higher.

Simply sum up a rule, you see that the five-level quotation is generally single-digit or double-digit, this kind of control panel The degree is generally relatively high. If it is three-digit or four-digit, then the equity is relatively scattered. Second, look at the turnover rate The method above is the most common method I use, but it ignores the difference in share capital and stock price. For example, Agricultural Bank of China has a circulating market value of hundreds of billions, and its stock price is only three yuan. Each time the five-level quotation is tens of thousands of lots, it seems super scattered, but in fact, the daily turnover rate of this product is less than 0.1%, and the equity is in the hands of the institution. Turnover rate = trading volume/tradable equity generally exceeds 2%, which means that the equity is very scattered. It is normal between 1% and 2%, 0.5% to 1% is concentrated, and less than 0.5% is very concentrated. However, these two methods are not particularly perfect, because the market concentration of individual stocks also has to consider the heat of hype, such as Arowana, you can see that its five-level quotations are all three-digit or four-digit, and it takes several million to fluctuate once. Even tens of millions.

If you look at the turnover rate, this product is as high as 15%, can you say that its equity is dispersed? Obviously not.

For such stocks, the best way is to look at historical trading volume changes, which is the K-line chart we see most frequently every day. I have emphasized many times that a K-line chart contains a lot of information, especially the change in volume and price, which is the core information, and the concentration of equity can be seen when combined. Take Arowana as an example. Its rise can be divided into two stages. We can clearly see that the trading volume in stage 1 is higher, but the increase is not as good as that in stage 2. What does this mean?

Indicates that there are fewer and fewer selling orders for this stock, and the stock price can rise more with less capital, which is the performance of increased concentration. You can even simply and rudely interpret that the smaller the trading volume in the historical K-line chart, the higher the concentration. You can refer to things like Maotai and Wuliangye, whether the stock price is getting higher and the trading volume is getting lower and lower, Highly concentrated. I often mentioned in the morning interpretation of Knowledge Planet, wait for the first hand to shrink and stop falling. Why wait to shrink? It is to use time for space. Those who frequently buy and sell have little interest in this stock in the short-term, and will sell this stock when it will not rise a little. If the volume can never decrease, it means that the market transaction has been hot, and the equity has always been hot. It is exchanged in the hands of retail investors, but not in the hands of long-term holders. This kind of individual stock is under too much pressure. Unless there is breaking news, it will definitely not rise high, and the equity is more concentrated. Finally, there is another method to calculate the shareholder's shareholdingAfter you judge that the shareholding of this stock is very concentrated through the above method, you need to confirm whether your vision is wrong again, and you need to look at the shareholder's shareholding. . First of all, the number of controlling shareholders and the stock price have no effect. The concentration of equity cannot be calculated by the number of people. Based on my observations over the years, this indicator is too easy to be distorted. You have to look at the proportion of tradable shares. Taking Kweichow Moutai as an example, the top ten shareholders alone hold 73% of the tradable shares. These are long-term holders, and it is basically impossible to sell, which is equivalent to being locked. Generally, if this indicator exceeds 50%, it is super concentrated. .

On the basis of this data, you can also use the Chioce financial terminal or Wind or iAbout to view the sum of the positions of all institutions. I calculated some stocks, The figure below is the data after some individual stock institutions hold positions in the tradable shares. You can see that Shaanxi Coal Industry and Wuliangye have more than 80%, and the degree of holding is extremely high, and these are still large-cap stocks. If you go to check some small and medium-cap stocks , the holding degree even reached 95%, which is extremely scary.

Okay, these are the methods to check the equity concentration. Finally, you need to keep in mind that the equity concentration is an auxiliary for stock selection, it will make you choose the right When you choose a good stock, it will rise faster, and if you choose the wrong stock, it will drop faster. If you choose a good stock and then judge that the equity concentration is high, then it is probably a successful investment.

Risk warning: The stocks mentioned in this article are only used for article analysis, not investment advice. The stock market is risky, and investment needs to be cautious.

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Label group:[stock] [invest] [equity] [outstanding shares] [Ownership concentration

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